by Nick Cooke
Statistical improvement
Just so that people know what’s what with the economy as of the November elections, Central Bank President Mario Arana released some pertinent figures. The government’s macroeconomic statistics figure strongly in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for its continued support to the country in restructuring its economy.
Inflation was running at 6.43% from January to September this year, down from 8.51% for the same period last year. International reserves are higher than ever, climbing to $828.4 million from $729.9M at the end of last year, a continuation of the upward trend for reserves, which were at 670.4M in 2004 and 504.2M in December 2003.
Meanwhile, there was a continued increase in the Gross Domestic Product, growing at the rate of 3.7% this year.
Against any and all abortion
Church power is still strong in Nicaragua, as seen by the recent approval by all parties in National Assembly of legislation to outlaw therapeutic abortion, penalizing it with five to eight years in prison, a Nicaraguan prison.
A bill related to this was wending its way through the molasses-in-January inner workings of the Assembly. Drum banging on this ever-controversial issue began right in the middle of the election campaign. All presidential candidates issued an opinion, which except for had them sitting squarely on the fence. Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement was the only to say what he really thinks, very inusual in Nicaraguan politics. It probably cost him some votes.
Anti-abortion commentaries appeared in newspapers and civic committees hung banners across streets vociferously stating their opposition to abortion under all circumstances. Church leaders more concerned with the unborn than the living came out on their side.
Pressure grew and a vote was forced in the Assembly. All the parties running in the election had representatives in the Assembly and, cutting across party lines in a singular display of unity, the majority voted to outlaw therapeutic abortions.
Now expectant mothers and fetuses with complications will have to let nature take its course. Maternal mortality statistics will worsen from an already appalling state.
Safe haven for tourism
Tourism this year showed a continued rise, helped by a number of factors. One was a drop in the number of visitors to Costa Rica. Authorities there blame the decline on the World Cup syndrome (people went to Germany for their vacation), poor infrastructure, constant muggings and robberies, and a rash of passport stealing in the neighbor to the south.
Weighing in on the positive side, the Nicaraguan Tourism Institute (INTUR) under the leadership of María Nelly Rivas has been vigorously promoting the country as a destination, using every opportunity to do so, including the recent elections. Ads were placed in the local media to encourage the thousands of international observers and reporters to spend some more time and get to know the country. Rivas says that because the elections were held without problems, this helped project an even more favorable image.
At a recent national convention on tourism, Tomás Borge, president of the legislative commission on tourism called on the media not to sensationalize violent incidents in the country. Some media use blood and violence to sell themselves more, and one could get the wrong impression of the country.. However, figures show that Nicaragua is one of the safest countries, not just in the region, but in the world, and has even being compared to Canada. For example, the murder rate in Latin America is 22 per 100,000 people. In Costa Rica, it is six, while in Nicaragua it is fewer than four.
Crying over spilt oil
Leakage from a containment facility for petroleum residues in mid-October revealed weaknesses in Nicaraguan environmental protection efforts. There is confusion about who issued which permits to use a site near Puerto Sandino on Nicaragua’s Pacific coast for dumping this tarry waste. The environmental permit from the Ministry of Environment apparently had some irregularities and alterations. Buck passing was quick to start between Esso, the Spence Pong & Co., the company actually hired to do the dumping, and local and federal authorities.
Environment Minister Cristobál Sequeira said work was being done to remedy the situation, but that it was insufficient. For the future, he said, there should be contingency plans to deal with such disasters.
Turtle traffickers
Over the course of 2006, Costa Rican environmental authorities returned 931 freshwater turtles for release into Lake Nicaragua where they came from. Environmentally-unfriendly businessmen would sell them as pets or for taxidermy. Earlier this year, Nicaragua returned more than 100 exotic birds being transported across the border from the southern neighbor.
Poaching eggs
The eggs laid by Paslama sea turtles on the Nicaraguan beaches of La Flor and Chacocente continue to be scooped up by furtive gatherers. Despite posting guards, who have even shot at poachers, efforts to protect them do not always succeed in closing off all opportunities to dig up the eggs under cover of night. About 700 dozen of the ping-pong ball sized eggs were found recently in a car pulled over by the police.
Meanwhile, the arrival of fleets of turtles at the La Flor Refuge this year has been like nothing before, according to Ronald Vega of the Cocibolca Foundation that administers the nature preserve. Almost 56,000 crawled up onto the sandy beach between October 10 and 15. Each month late in the year sees arrivals during the appropriate moon phase. The projected total for the period from September to January is over 170,000. An estimated one and half million turtlets will be born. Could it be that efforts to save this endangered species are finally bearing fruit?
When will they ever learn?
Immediately after the PLC (Liberal Constitutionalist Party) loss in the elections, that party’s national executive committee held a meeting to discuss restructuring. Probably not a bad move considering, but the spawn engendered will likely be another example of the acorn not falling far from the tree.
Presiding over that meeting was former president Arnoldo Alemán. This convicted felon is currently under house arrest, the bounds of the “house” coinciding with those of the Department of Managua. As part of the conditions of his “imprisonment,” he supposedly cannot participate in political activities. Apparently, PLC leadership meetings are not “political.”
The Liberal strongman is figure around which the unity of some old guard Liberals can be forged, in part because he wields much influence among party members, particularly those who benefited from his largesse derived from ill-gotten gains while president of the nation. Though exercising this centripetal force, his presence at the top of the PLC food chain acts centrifugally. Those who even hint at party renewal without “the fat man” are quickly flung outside the PLC political sphere. That, essentially, is what led to the formation of the National Liberal Alliance – ALN.
PLCers blame the split among Liberals for the election victory of Daniel Ortega and the FSLN, yet they fail to see the divisiveness caused by the mere presence of Alemán in their circles.
Alemán still faces trial in Panama for laundering government money and another round of charges is in the wings in-country, though it appears that bureaucratic procedures, toying with legalisms, and some political fiddling in the Prosecutors’ Office is delaying the administration of justice in this case.
Observers of national politics speculate that Arnoldo will receive some favor from Ortega for having successfully divided Liberalism, thereby allowing the FSLN to walk away with victory. One has to wonder whether the spirit of reconciliation preached during Ortega’s campaign will actually benefit Arnoldo Alemán.
ElectionBitz
by Nick Cooke
Fourth Time’s a Charm
Talk about the comeback kid! Since he lost power in the 1990 elections, Ortega failed in two other bids for the presidency. The victory by Daniel Ortega and his party, the FSLN, in November’s presidential and National Assembly elections shows that persistence pays off.
Taking advantage of the division among Liberals into two opposing forces, Ortega garnered 38% of the vote, compared to 29% and 26% for Eduardo Montealegre and José Rizo, respectively. Third runner-up candidate, Edmundo Jarquín of the Sandinista Renewal Movement – MRS, chalked up just under 7%.
Simple arithmetic shows that more Nicaraguans lean towards the Liberals, but politics here is anything but simple. Efforts by US Ambassador Paul Trivelli to unite the anti-Sandinista opposition around Bush Administration candidate-of-choice Montealegre and his National Liberal Alliance failed miserably and speculation is rife about Trivelli’s diplomatic future, at least in this country. His favoritism for the National Liberal Alliance (ALN) against the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC), all the while trash talking Ortega, was blatant to the point of drawing protests of interference in Nicaragua’s internal affairs from many here and abroad.
The ALN represents a “modern” liberalism that raises the banner of anti-corruption in response to the recent history of the “old school” PLC who steadfastly believe the State is for the plundering when in power. Those PLCers fervently defend former president Arnoldo Alemán, who was convicted two years ago for crimes related to looting Nicaraguan State resources while in office. That particular trial only touched the tip of the iceberg of the corruption in government corridors. Estimates of what Alemán and his ilk allegedly ripped off go as high as $400 million. The PLC, though, insists he is not a criminal but a “political prisoner.”
Ortega’s electoral success can in part be attributed to the extremely negative campaign by his Liberal rivals backfiring. Rather than focus on issues and how to move the country forward, they constantly harped on the past, specifically the 1980s when Nicaragua was racked by a civil war during the revolutionary regime of the FSLN after the overthrow of the Somoza dictatorship in the 1979 popular insurrection. By reviving the specter of massive currency devaluations and a return of military conscription, Liberals hoped to scare the electorate into voting for them. Vilified in public rallies, Ortega was called everything short of the devil incarnate.
The FSLN, meanwhile, campaigned on a platform calling for national unity and reconciliation in order to have well-being and continued peace in the country. Combined with electioneering promises of jobs, education, housing, and healthcare, this positivistic message carried a lot of weight when it came time to vote.
E-day and after
Nicaraguans flooded in from abroad to vote. Flights from the USA were booked solid and buses arriving from neighboring Costa Rica and Honduras were packed to the gills. Nicaraguan law does not permit absentee balloting.
In the days leading up to the vote, the PLC attempted to sow confusion among Montealegre supporters, claiming he had dropped out of the race and had even left the country. Reflecting the depths of the Liberal division, PLC candidate José Rizo went so far as to say that after being elected, he would chuck Montealegre in jail for his involvement in a bond issue while serving in the past two Liberal administrations.
Election day transpired with nary an adverse incident. Aside from some slowness in the voting process, balloting for the most part went off without a hitch. About 18,000 national and international observers were on hand, making this one of the most closely watched elections in recent history anywhere.
Roberto Rivas, head of the Supreme Election Council (CSE), read out the first preliminary results on national television at 12:15 a.m. Monday. Shortly before that, an international wire service had leaked results from exit polls indicating a clear FSLN victory. Though only 2% of the estimated total vote had been tallied by that time, the CSE decided to go public. As Rivas explained later that day, if the CSE had held back and waited for a greater proportion, there would have been accusations of concocting a fraud.
Everyone had expected much closer vote counts, with no candidate getting enough to win flat out in a first round. As it stands in the law here, a presidential candidate wins if he or she gets over 35% of the total vote with a 5% or more lead over the runner up. Otherwise, there would have to be a run-off election a month later between the top two candidates. The FSLN had 40%, compared to 32% for the ALN and 21% for the PLC. The MRS trailed far behind with 4.3%. The fifth candidate, Edén Pastora of the Alliance for Change, was not even close to 1% then, and his vote total never topped that low water mark.
Disbelief reigned for a time. Hoping for a turnaround, Eduardo Montealegre stated, “It has barely begun.” He did get his licks in against the PLC, however, adding, “Bipartisanism is over in Nicaragua.” For years now, the country has been governed under the umbrella of a form of compact between the FSLN and the PLC, called “el Pacto,” which guaranteed a sharing of power between the two parties in different State bodies.
PLC spokesman Leonel Teller was more vehement in rejecting these preliminary results, labeling the CSE “irresponsible” for making the announcement with only 2% of the vote in. “This could lead to blood and violence!” he exclaimed, “a possible bloodbath!” Passion remained high and tension was evident on the faces of many at the different party headquarters. Sandinista loyalists in Managua celebrated euphorically, driving around in caravans waving party flags.
At 3 a.m., the CSE issued a second round of preliminary results, this time with about 8% of the vote counted. The spread had narrowed, but the overall result was essentially the same with an obvious trend being established.
At 7 a.m., the national observer group Ethics and Transparency announced results from their own quick count conducted the day before, very much in line with the established trend. Another national group, IPADE, further confirmed it with their group’s exit poll results. The CSE went live on TV again around midday, this time with more than 50% of the results. The placing of the candidates remained the same.
The waiting game continued. Roberto Rivas, in an almost blasé manner, began the CSE broadcast early the next evening by calling for a maintenance of calm and an avoidance of “unnecessary instability.” By then, more than 90% was counted, the results changing little.
While the PLC continued insisting on waiting for the last few ballot boxes to be counted, Eduardo Montealegre and an ALN delegation went to Ortega’s campaign headquarters to concede the election.
Reconciliation rules
Ortega and the FSLN displayed remarkable maturity by not declaring their obvious victory until the main opponent admitted defeat. Accepting his loss, Montealegre graciously stated, “I apologize if I have offended anyone during this campaign,” a clear reference to comments used to describe his opponent, the winner, Daniel Ortega. “And,” Eduardo added, “I forgive those who have offended me.” What PLCers said about him during the campaign bordered on slander and libel.
Caught up in the spirit of reconciliation, he said we all must work together for the good of Nicaraguans. President-elect Daniel Ortega concurred. In a calm matter-of-fact tone, he said, “These transparent elections and us standing here together should reassure all those who have invested in Nicaragua and who seek to invest in Nicaragua.”
A possible change in the investment climate with an FSLN victory had many concerned. Prior to the election, Ortega made repeated overtures to the business and investment community, reassuring that a win by him would not signify a return to the distant past of property confiscations and heavy-handed State control over free enterprise.
Staying the course of reconciliation after Montealegre’s concession, Ortega stated, “We believe that conditions in Nicaragua are right for the practice of a new political culture… a way to work together with all our diversity and whatever differences we have, with a constructive spirit and always putting Nicaragua, the people, the poor, first.”
The Legislature: time for brokering power
Nicaragua’s National Assembly has just over 90 members: those who won in elections, plus the second-place presidential candidate. A spot is also guaranteed for outgoing President Enrique Bolaños. Seats are not divided proportionate to votes received, but instead are assigned according to a formula complicated enough to challenge the best mathematical brain.
This divvying up of Assembly seats is traditionally where the first deals are brokered between the nation’s political forces, even before taking office. Claims were made of municipal and departmental electoral councils tampering with the results in order to assuage PLC losing pangs by awarding them more seats at the expense of other parties. The ALN and MRS are most affected by this, and coincidentally or not, most election councils are controlled by FSLNers and PLCers, yet another outcome of “el Pacto.” Regardless of the final outcome of the number crunching, no party will even have the simple majority necessary for passing ordinary legislation.
This means, as one commentator observed, there will have to be “a permanent climate of negotiation.” Some intransigent PLCers with sour grapes worried they may be left out from the circles of power, so they began denouncing the formation of a new “pacto” between the ALN and the FSLN. Militant MRSers, meanwhile, proclaimed they would support no legislation that runs counter to the interests of Nicaraguans.
Realignments of the legislative benches are inevitable. The party of former contras, the Nicaraguan Resistance Party – PRN, blazed the trail. Within days of the results, they announced that their assemblymen will form their own bench, breaking away from the ALN. This will enable them to be better able to bargain legislative votes in exchange for political and/or material concessions for themselves and their constituents.
A few days later, Mario Valle, an elected MRS deputy, announced he will join the FSLN bench. No crystal ball is necessary to predict that some PLCers will slide over to the ALN bloc in the Assembly. Political horizontal mobility is commonplace in the National Assembly.
All these shifts are nothing but eddies in the mainstream of future politics in Nicaragua. The main issues are well defined and the course laid out thus far leaves little room for maneuver because of programs with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank.
If the country wants to enjoy the benefits of forgiving or restructuring the massive foreign debt, it must continue with structural reforms essentially dictated by these international financial institutions. The money mass involved in honoring these commitments is in the billions.
With an economic agreement with the IMF about to expire on December 12, Ortega met in mid-November with an IMF official in-country on an “informal visit.” The FSLN wants more flexibility in the next agreement in order to increase spending on social programs. If the spirit of negotiation in these talks and not imposition prevails, it might even spill over into the deal cutting among national political forces.
Great expectations
Ortega rode to power on a groundswell of support from many poor in the country who are willing to give him a chance in power after seeing the results of 16 years of governance under a neoliberal system.
Poverty is rife throughout the country. The outgoing Executive Branch made some serious attempts to combat it with what is called the National Development Plan and by aligning with internationally agreed on Millennium Development Goals to reduce extreme poverty and general poverty, while delivering healthcare, education, and safe water to the population. Various targets for these issues, with increments up to the year 2015, have been set. Little progress was made towards them this year since the Bolaños Administration faced a boycott to its exercise of power due to the politicking of the National Assembly that hogtied much of the discretionary power that the Executive Branch ostensibly has.
Ortega made a commitment to the poor, promising expanded social spending and a new scheme for providing credit to small-scale farmers and producers, many of them are not eligible for loans from the banking system. Coincidentally, the other parties promised something similar while campaigning for votes. Obviously, many voters put more faith in the FSLN to deliver, but there is common ground on which all parties can work.
The Bolaños National Development Plan implicitly acknowledges that the goal of prosperity for all will take quite some time. Those in extreme poverty can barely expect to reach the poverty line over the next ten years, while those in general poverty are left with the prospect that their children will free themselves upwards on the economic scale through a judicious approach combining education and economic investment.
The poor electorate expects more immediate solutions. Given the platforms of all the parties in the recent electoral contest, it should be possible to begin implementing many proposals to improve the well-being of the population. To meet these expectations and spread growth throughout the land without facing a legislative boycott, Ortega et al will have to be very savvy politicians.
Key to all this is economic expansion. Investment, both national and foreign, is a goose laying golden eggs, and it would be unwise to scramble them. All indications so far point to maintenance of the current propitious climate.
Let it be?
As ever, a major player in Nicaraguan politics is the US government. Throughout the campaign, it ran interference to avoid having Ortega catch the winning touchdown pass. Some in Washington hinted at chilly relations with the country if Ortega won. A couple of Congressmen in the wrong end zone suggested punishing all Nicaragua if that happened, proposing a kind of embargo to prevent Nicas in the States sending money to relatives here. That would be a serious blow to household economies throughout the country.
Faced with Ortega’s clear and clean win, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice says they are willing to work with the newly-elected government so long as it continues with economic freedom and open markets. Daniel Ortega has made overtures to the US government in order to hold talks. The Millennium Development Corporation and its promised $175 million in aid will continue its disbursements for rural and roadway projects in León and Chinandega, all the while putting on the rider that there must be respect for democratic principles and economic freedom and respect for the laws. Implicit is their definition of democracy.
US government interest in Nicaraguan affairs will remain high. The question is whether their inevitable involvement, lobbying within the anti-Sandinista opposition, will infringe the bounds of independence and enter into the realm of interference with intent to impede.
Left to its own devices, Nicaragua will move intransigently forward and upward. You can’t keep a good country down. The near future will be very interesting, to say the least.
