by Nick Cooke

The incredible shrinking country strikes back

Since its independence, Nicaragua has seen a reduction of its surface area. It started back in the 1858 when Costa Rica absorbed a sizeable chunk by taking over the Guanacaste Peninsula on the Pacific Coast.

Then in the early part of the 20th century, Colombia, in exchange for having its province of Panama become an independent republic to facilitate canal construction, received the Nicaraguan islands of San Andrés, Quitasueño y Roncador in the Caribbean in a deal brokered by the United States.

Honduras filed suit in the late 1950s for a big piece of the Mosquito Coast and Nicaraguan ruler Somoza signed it over. The Honduran government has since filed claim to more of Nicaragua’s territorial waters, rich in seafood and with real possibilities for finding reserves of oil and/or gas. In the aftermath of the 1980s war, there were also rumblings about a takeover of the Jalapa Valley, a fertile piece of land in north-central Nicaragua that juts into Honduras.

Meanwhile to the south, there have been another couple of half-hearted attempts to gobble up bits of Nicaragua. In the early-to-mid 1990s, a Costa Rican parliamentarian purchased some farmland in southwest Nicaragua along the border and tried to refuse entry to Nica border patrols, effectively trying to make it a part of his country. There is also persistent rumors of Tico desires to acquire the narrow strip of Nicaragua along the south shore of Lake Nicaragua, including a feeble attempt to launch an “independence” movement for a new nano-republic later that same decade.

Shoring up the border

Now that it’s election time in Costa Rica, some politicians there are claiming more rights over the San Juan River. The case is to be aired in the International Court of Justice at the Hague. This issue, raised countless times over the years, revolves around Costa Rica’s insistence on being able to transport armed guards along the river in order to resupply its border posts.

In 1858, the Jerez-Cañas Treaty was signed. The Cleveland Ruling of 1888 gave an interpretation to it that both countries accepted. The treaty defined a part of the border as the south bank of the San Juan River, rather than having an imaginary line run mid-river as happens with other river borders. This with a view towards the construction of a proposed interoceanic canal along that route, making it only necessary to deal with one country. The canal never happened, but the borderline in effect today was etched in the mud of the river bank.

Costa Rican vessels have to ask for permission and pay a fee to use the waterway. Their alleged non-army must report any trip they want to make on the river and they are not allowed to carry weapons. They wish to change all that in their favor.

A new, bigger, Nicaragua?

Despite the usual extreme variations in political belief, this issue has been a source of unanimity in Nicaragua. All governments have staunchly maintained the stance that the San Juan River is Nicaraguan and routine declarations to that effect have been made. The private sector chips in by supplying bumper stickers allusive to Nicaragua’s river.

In response to the latest round of claims by the neighbor to the south, Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Norman Caldera said that if Costa Rica is going to disregard the original 137-year old treaty and the ruling made on it 117 years ago, then this country might as well do likewise and thereby claim Guanacaste as its national territory.

Nationalist circles in Costa Rica have, of course, reacted with outrage to this logical extension and insinuated that Caldera is a few fries short of a happy meal. They said he is rattling, not a saber, but an empty scabbard. The war of words will continue, but in the meantime, we can speculate about “what would happen if?” Word has it Guanacaste has some excellent beachfront properties.

Hurricane Beta or Beta not?

The tail end of this year’s hurricane season gave Nicaragua a couple of frights. Wilma, the biggest and strongest hurricane ever recorded, was headed here, but decided at the last minute to visit the Yucatan Peninsula before sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico to flood basements in Miami.

Then the regular alphabet for tropical storms ran out and Greek letters were resorted to. Beta appeared to be heading for the city of Puerto Cabezas in the northeast and the prognosis was dire. The capital of the North Atlantic Autonomous Region is populous and many live in structures that could not withstand even a mild hurricane.

But Beta turned its eye south and entered the country at about its mid-point along the Atlantic seaboard. It rapidly lost heart and fizzled out. The villages in that sparsely populated zone suffered. An area of forest equivalent to about 5% of what is destroyed every year by the advance of the agricultural frontier was damaged, as were some crops. As a whole, Nicaragua got off easy from a natural disaster it could ill afford. As you could say in Coast English, the end result was “much bettah.”

Caught white-handed

Talk about being in the wrong place at the right time! A launch with about two tons of cocaine on board was trying to take advantage of a lack of sea patrols because of the advance of Hurricane Beta in October. A British frigate happened along, ready to deliver food aid to people in the wake of the storm. The coke crew, likely thinking they would fare better under the Nicaraguan legal system, tried to run for this country’s waters but was thwarted in its attempt.

Wood you believe…?

In a flush of eco-sensitivity, the National Assembly approved a moratorium on felling several species of trees and selling the lumber. Some deputies wanted the ban to go for three years, others for 25. A compromise was reached and the proscription is to last for 10 years. It includes mahogany, pochote, pine, ceibo, cedar, and mangroves.

Criticism came quickly. Some 10,000 heads of households in the north-center of the country depend on forestry for their livelihood. Enforcement capacities are at a minimum and allegations have been made that forest authorities and even some National Assembly deputies have bought into illegal logging operations. Meanwhile, it is expected that the price of lumber will skyrocket.

Back to school

For 25 years, the doors of US military academies have been closed to the Nicaraguan army. That has now changed with a new barracks-buddy relationship between the militaries of both countries. Next year, 18 Nicaraguan officers will attend classes at West Point and the US naval and air force academies. As well, the National Army is to receive US$1.5 million more in aid before year’s end. More such support is expected in 2006, principally for vehicles and communications and radar equipment, ostensibly for intercepting drug runners and dealing with natural disasters.

Do they have piggy-porn videos?

Definitely not your traditional export product. With help from Taiwan, Nicaragua now has a fully-functioning sperm bank, for pigs. This seminal idea will help improve pig farming operations throughout the country. A spin-off benefit could be the exportation of the cloven-hoofed semen. Only pure-bred porcine beasts need apply. Despite allusions their swinish nature, certain members of the national political class just don’t have the right stuff. At 80 bucks a pop, there is good money to be made in this up-and-coming business. Will stud pigs organize themselves into an Animal Farm-style labor union?

Concepción coughing

Concepción Volcano on Ometepe Island in Lake Nicaragua continues to act up. Rumblings and grumblings have reverbrated throughout the island for several months. Accumulations of vapor around its summit increase from time to time. Occasional explosions have spit sand and ash into the atmosphere. Several towns on the mainland to the west have had these airborne particulates descend on them, accompanied by a sulfurous odor. This may have an effect on crop production and even on water quality. Meanwhile, on the bright side for the island economy, more tourists are venturing lakewards to get a glimpse of this colossal landform’s awakening.

80,000 and counting

Nicaragua is synonymous with biodiversity. The staff of the Herbarium of the National Autonomous University of Nicaragua (UNAN) in León has successfully uploaded information about more than 80,000 members of the Plant Kingdom found in Nicaragua. This represents 30.7% of the known plant species in the world. The listings are posted on the web site of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, or GBIF for short.

Show me the money!

Yet another scandal is racking Nicaragua’s judicial system. It what appears to be a sleight of hand operation with court sentences, an order was issued to release US$609,000 of cash caught being smuggled southwards through the country. Checks were written and cashed, and there is even video of the money being withdrawn from a bank. Yet no one knows where it went.

What is known is a Supreme Court Magistrate authorized the release, alleging a technicality in the prosecution of the detainee caught with the money. It makes a difference if a crook is tried in a local jurisdiction other than the one in which the arrest takes place. And despite police reports to the contrary, the magistrate in question, Rogers Camilo Argüello, claims that the suspect was picked up in San Marcos and not in Managua, where his trial and conviction occurred. The sentence was appealed and made it all the way to the Supreme Court.

Argüello is not the only member of the Bench involved. The other magistrates that make up the particular wing of the Supreme Court overseeing the appeal signed off on the document. In a case of justice truly being optically impaired, the possibility has been raised that the other judicial officials had no idea what it was all about. (One might want to keep an eye on that.)

Involved in this imbroglio is a cast of  lawyers and lower court judges that had connections with the now defunct State Security apparatus that operated in the 1980s Sandinista regime. Reporters have filled endless newspaper columns with tidbits about several of these legal eagles’ criminal records.

Speculation abounds. Is it a Sandinista plot or just corruption; plain and simple greed? The Supreme Court said it would investigate to see whether a crime had been committed, to then take action if necessary. This was denounced as having the coyote investigate theft in the chicken coop. The National Assembly stepped in and proposed that a legislative commission look into it. Debate ensued as to whether it should be a “special” commission or not. Liberal Assembly members, trying to make hay while the sun shines during this pre-election year, accused FSLN deputies of blocking the investigation.

Despite the maneuvers around any possible investigation, the vast majority of the public believes that magistrates are involved, according to an opinion poll published in the daily paper La Prensa. You might say that it is a clear case of bucking the system.

Light up

As part of the efforts to preserve macroeconomic stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is pressuring Nicaragua to raise electricity rates by up to 25%. The government wrangled over a lesser rate hike for the last year with the Spanish-owned electric utility, Union Fenosa, and it was agreed to bump bills by about  9%.

This increased price for electricity, along with a package of laws that has been in a holding pattern over the National Assembly, forms part of the conditions for remaining in the good graces of the IMF. Translated into simple speak, jump through all the hoops and money will be provided in the form of loans and grants for development and balancing payments.

Although it will likely cost more, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Budget Support Group made up by the World Bank and various donor countries announced that because the IMF reported in mid-October that Nicaragua is generally performing well with respect to getting its act together, it will disburse $89 million in desperately needed aid. It had been temporarily frozen because of the recent institutional crisis. There is another $88 million ready for 2006. Most of this is for spending related to poverty reduction.

Free trade fruits

Nicaraguan cantaloupes, lemons, papayas, yucca, and plantains are appearing with more frequency on supermarket shelves in the United States. Free range beef and squeaky white cheese from Chontales is right there, too.

With the recent ratification of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA), interest from US buyers has been further sparked. The Fiesta supermarket chain recently signed agreements to regularly import major volumes of Nicaraguan produce.

On the flip side of the coin, Wal-Mart recently purchased around half the interest in the Pali and La Unión supermarket chains. So we can soon expect to see plenty of Chinese-made consumer goods. Will they institute the practice of having a “greeter” at the entrance?

Budget in

The Ministry of Finance has presented a draft national budget for 2006 to the National Assembly. The budget for 2005, presented this time last year, might possibly be approved before year’s end. Meanwhile, the Assembly is attempting to improve its image. An imaginative publicity campaign has included the placing of illuminated street advertisements on Managua boulevards that makes a claim reading, “The National Assembly: Legislating for You.” No mention is made of how much legislating they do, or how fast they do it.

Highways to hell in a hand basket

This year’s rainy season was rough on the nation’s roadways, but not nearly as rough as those roads are on your vehicle. It’s a veritable pothole party along several of Nicaragua’s main arteries, some of which are now positively lunar. For reasons unknown, routine road maintenance was conspicuously absence much of the year. Little failures in road structure on different stretches developed into gaping craters, providing drivers and passengers with a kidney-rattling zig-zagging ride.

Quite handily, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Pedro Solorzano resigned in October in order to be able to participate as a potential running mate for whichever presidential candidate wants him. His replacement now has to deal with the fallout from a scandal involving $7 million in lost funds for the construction of the highway from the border with Honduras to Chinandega and the failure to come anywhere near to this year’s goal for paving.

Smile: it’s candidate camera

Who do you love?

With less than a year before the next presidential elections, it’s a dead cert that Daniel Ortega will run once again for the Sandinista Front and its agglomeration of allies known as the National Convergence. Presidential wannabe Herty Lewites broke away from the FSLN earlier this year and has formed his own Alliance with support from many Sandinistas and other middle-of-the-roaders.

The Liberals are fragmented into a gaggle of factions, with the PLC (Arnoldo Alemán’s party) having the most clout. At the behest of US Ambassador Paul Trivelli and other representatives from the powers-that-be in the USA, they are ostensibly working on getting their act together in order to present a united front of sorts when campaigning starts, all the while trying to make it look like they don’t take orders from anyone. Funding for election purposes is on the table and it is getting more difficult to maintain a poker face.

While this is wrestled out, two Liberal hopefuls are making a decent showing in opinion polls: Eduardo Montealegre and Antonio Alvarado, the former far-and-away ahead of the other. Both would love to be endorsed by the PLC apparatus, but in Montealegre’s case, it is unlikely. He participated in the Administration of President Enrique Bolaños and in the eyes of PLCers, he quite simply is not be trusted.

Flushed with eagerness to participate and to win the nod from PLC figurehead and ex-president Arnoldo Alemán, a plethora of aspirants have scurried to indicate their availability. These include a recently-resigned Vice-President, a recently-resigned Minister of Agriculture, and Haroldo Montealegre, known for his flamboyant opportunism and oft-failing business ventures.

Eduardo Montealegre has gone ahead and formed his own political coalition, complete with a slightly modified version of the party red flag. The PLC, red in the face over such an affront has placed a challenge to his use of that color before the Supreme Electoral Council, the body overseeing electoral matters in the country.

Losing inhibitions?

Meanwhile, efforts are already underway to narrow the playing field with talk of “inhibiting” candidates. For example, Herty Lewites faces charges of misadministration during his term as Managua Mayor that may “inhibit” him from running. Daniel Ortega may possibly face a case regarding actions taken by his government in the early 1980s against Miskito Indians. A suit has been filed before a Central American court that rules on human rights violations.

Something not mentioned so far is that Eduardo Montealegre may well catch some fallout from recent charges against government officials,  including the President, of “electoral crimes” to do with illegal campaign funding in the last presidential elections. He was campaign manager for Bolaños and, therefore, probably handled some of that funding.

On another front, some Liberal National Assembly deputies are eager to see PLC leader Alemán set free. They have been bandying about different proposals for a general amnesty law. One possibility is that any public official accused of wrongdoing for acts over the last 15 years would see their actions forgiven and they would not be subject to prosecution. Not wanting to make their maneuver so obvious, they argue this will benefit many politicians, not just “El Gordoman.”

Throwing a monkey wrench into the works, in mid-November, Arnoldo Alemán indicated he might throw his hat in the ring. Should an amnesty law pass, his conviction for laundering money obtained from embezzling State funds could be made null and void. As an amnestied convicted felon, he then could make a run for the nation’s top office.

Is a face-off between Ortega and Alemán in the offing? Though incredible, it cannot be ruled out. It is said in this country the anvil floats and the feather sinks.

“Pacto” over easy

FSLN leader Daniel Ortega recently announced that the so-called “Pacto” is over, at the same time saying there never was such a pact. Nevertheless, this turn-of-the-century political arrangement made between his party and some head honchos of the Liberal Party under then-President Arnoldo Alemán resulted in a quid pro quo division of appointments to different power institutions that control the runnings of the Nicaraguan State. Backs on both sides had itches scratched.

There is plenty of speculative analysis as what the “Pacto” really was or is, but in effect it created a situation in which Alemán Liberals and Ortega Sandinistas got their way and no one else could get in the way.

When asked in a TV interview about the pact and criticisms of it, Daniel glibly responded that if those who criticized it were part of it, they would not call it such. You’re either on the bus or off the bus, in other words.

He made his announcement after brokering a deal with President Enrique Bolaños to pass a “Frame Law” in October for governing the country until a couple of weeks after the next elected president takes office in January 2007, after the upcoming November 2006 presidential elections. This “law” effectively postpones implementation of constitutional reforms to strip the Presidency of powers at the same time as leaving off prosecution of President Bolaños for alleged election funding irregularities.

More questions than answers

The reforms in question have to do with establishing a political system that is less presidential and more parliamentary, a drum that Danny O has been banging for more than a year. The winner of the next presidential elections will have a brief period in which to contest the constitutional reforms to strip powers from the office of the President. If Daniel Ortega or anyone else wins the next election with a legislative majority, will he willingly relinquish the powers of that office?

Politics, as Lenin said, is the art of knowing what to do next. Does this latest political re-accommodation mean that Ortega now will no longer deal with the politically burnt-out figure of his former pact-mate, the convicted felon Alemán? Or are more “arrangements” to come on that front, like the possible amnesty for Arnoldo and others being put forward in the National Assembly?

In the wake of Ortega’s announcement, Arnoldo Alemán recently nuanced his discourse. Now, he comes off as an anti-imperialist because of recent declarations against him made by the US ambassador. He is also reaching out to the poor, claiming to be “the son of a campesino… who went about all Nicaragua to bring a message of equality of opportunity.” Even an egg and firewood vendor, as this Doctor of Law claims to have been, can become a national leader. Will the egalitarian spirit that imbues Sandinista ideology allow for another political alliance of convenience with Arnie and his ilk?

Framing the country

With the so-called “Frame Law”, a crisis of ungovernability (literally, unruliness) in the country was avoided, at least for the time being. Bolaños now has a final year in office to do what presidents do, albeit limited in his scope of action by deals made so far and deals inevitably to come.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court, the Supreme Electoral Council, and the Office of the Comptrollers-General of the Republic are divided pretty much 50-50 between those in the shadows of Daniel Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán. And the Legislative Branch as represented in the National Assembly fluctuates constantly around and about the swings of this political pendulum.

Issues for the “ex-Pact” to resolve revolve around the eligibility of candidates and parties to contest next year’s elections for the Autonomous Regional Councils on the Atlantic Coast early next year and the national elections in November 2006. Key legislation required for Nicaragua’s continued enjoyment of foreign development assistance is also on the table. Not to mention pending reforms to the Judicial System that has the power to rule on all that and more.

Though announced, reports of the death of the “Pacto” may be greatly exaggerated.