Antenor Rosales, the President of the Central Bank, announced during the third quarter of this year that projections for the annual growth rate of the economy have been revised downward, from 4.2% to 3.9%. He attributed this to a decline in domestic consumption and construction, combined with the energy crisis that has meant daily four-to-eight-hour power cuts all over the country. Rosales also said that the inflation rate would be 10% and not the 7.5% that was projected earlier this year.

This was all announced before the recent round of petroleum price increases. At the same time, the government’s economic authorities are working out the budget for next year. The first draft looks good on paper but apparently has a fatal flaw. Illustrating the fact that economists are not fortune tellers, the budget proposal is based on a projected price of oil of $76 a barrel.

This, together with the need to channel funds to rebuild parts of the country damaged in recent storms, will require some artful juggling of budget lines. The billion dollar question: Where will the money come from to pay for the promises made during the last elections? Many of the poor put their faith in the FSLN’s promises of zero hunger, zero unemployment, decent housing and free health care and education. It is highly doubtful that calls for austerity and belt-tightening and more waiting will be received well.